Year 2020 was supposed to be many things – the first of a new decade, the dawn of a new era, the stirring of a crescendo. But the pandemic broke in the early months bringing the world to a standstill. In a somewhat twisted way, the year may yet have lived up to expectations. A crisis of this magnitude has not been seen in recent times and its ramifications are expected to pervade the decade. So yes, the year will live on in our memory for its sheer notoriety but also because it has forced us on to parallel roads which may well mean unexpected destinations.  

India was expected to post a growth of 7.6-7.1% in 2020 ahead of China, as per the UN survey. The entry of pandemic has now inverted the story with China being the only country expected to post a positive growth figure, though a meagre one. While growth projections are likely to change as the economy bounces back, one thing is certain that the ripples of this are going to be felt over the coming years. Many interpret this as the advent of a new normal, the beginning of enduring change in choices, lifestyle, business and industry.

Here are some changes that I think are here to stay:

  1. Virtual Mobility: The pandemic locked us indoors and moved the office into our homes. Physical meetings were branded risky and within days everything went digital with work from home becoming a norm. We are now forced to embrace ‘virtual mobility’. It’s not as if these tools weren’t available before but there was no pressing need to substitute a physical meeting with a virtual one. Today, location is secondary, connectivity is primary. ‘Virtual first’ is now a reality for business. We have been pushed towards a future where work-from-anywhere is a reality. This change is going to be hard to reverse. 
  2. Focus on Tier 2 cities:  The pandemic saw people rethinking their life choices, even moving back to home towns for comfort, safety and family. This geographical flexibility has also made corporates more open to hiring people based out of Tier-2 cities with internet providing the required bridge. It matters little now whether an employee is based in Agra or Delhi as long as they are connected and productive. The senior corporate leadership today is more open to the idea of work-from-home.
    Another significant impact of this is the renewed focus on Tier 2 cities. The pandemic may have provided the necessary, though unfortunate, push for the industry to dive deeper into Tier 2 cities. This could help boost local economies, production, employment, and also take the steam off Tier 1 cities.
  3. Shift in Marketing Spend: Marketers in India have been obsessed with the metros for long. A major share of marketing gets funnelled into the metros but the changed scenario might just break this norm. With regional markets coming into focus we may now see a greater media mix and more engagement with the vernaculars.
    A change in the tone and strategy of marketing is also likely. Covid has now woken people up to the importance of healthier and sustainable lifestyles. There is a greater inclination to move away from metros to places that offer healthier life. Millennials are now looking at work-life in an entirely different light and marketing strategies will likely see tweaking to keep pace with this change.
  4. Digital marketing: Greater screen time for consumers will most likely translate into greater digital marketing. Digital was expected to garner 65% incremental ad spend in 2020 in India (TYNY Forecast).  Cancelled sports events, fairs and fests in the wake of pandemic have meant lesser traditional marketing opportunities hence greater share for digital. While many analysts have compared this economic phase with the recession of 2008, the fact is that the digital penetration is far greater this time. This could mean a bigger shift to digital market that may last well beyond the pandemic.

The Trojan Horse in all this, of course, is the question of connectivity. Internet reach is linked to disposal income which has reduced significantly in the wake of the lockdown.  And then the looming question of how much all this can actually reach the agriculture based economy.  There is no denying that the year and its tidings are going to cast a deep shadow on the decade but the best strategies are the ones that survive tough times. Perhaps we will come out of this as tough cookies.